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This Setup Cleared Two of Our Three Filters

One stock in the 96th percentile of relative strength just touched a level our engine rarely ignores.
HTFL · Relative Strength · score 82.3/100
EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 75 System: +3.5% | SPY (same window): +0.0% | Alpha: +3.5% Win rate: 0% (0/24) Open positions: CRNX (day 73, +1.2%), CRNX (day 68, +0.9%), CRNX (day 67, +0.8%), CRNX (day 66, +0.6%), CRNX (day 65, +0.5%), CRNX (day 64, +0.4%), CRNX (day 61, +0.3%), CRNX (day 60, +0.2%), CRNX (day 59, +0.2%), CRNX (day 58, +0.3%), CRNX (day 57, +0.2%), CRNX (day 54, +0.2%), CRNX (day 50, +0.1%), CRNX (day 47, -0.0%), TEAM (day 38, +15.5%), TEAM (day 37, +14.4%), HURN (day 18, +10.0%), HTFL (day 17, -4.4%), TEAM (day 16, +11.5%), RNG (day 10, -2.6%), RNG (day 9, -3.1%), HTFL (day 5, -4.8%), HTFL (day 4, -4.1%)

What the system saw

HTFL is sitting within 0.1% of its 20-day moving average — and yesterday it reclaimed that level with a 2.7% close. That's the tight, controlled touch our engine waits for. The Relative Strength Engine scored it 82.3 out of 100, and the reasoning is direct: HTFL has been in the 96th percentile for relative strength over the past 63 days. When a stock that strong pulls back to a logical support level and volume nearly disappears, the engine takes notice. We already carry two open positions in HTFL — day 4 and day 5, both slightly underwater — so this becomes a third entry on the same name. That's worth saying plainly: we're not adding out of stubbornness. The setup keeps re-presenting itself, and the engine keeps flagging it.

Why our Relative Strength Engine liked it

The relative strength rank is what put HTFL on our radar in the first place — and it's what keeps it there. A 96.5th-percentile RS score over 63 days means HTFL has been outrunning nearly the entire market for three months straight. That's the engine's core filter: it wants names institutions are already accumulating, not names we're hoping they'll eventually discover. The 20-day moving average bounce adds the timing layer. Price came down, touched the average, held, and began reclaiming. Volume dried up on the pullback — which the engine treats as a sign sellers exhausted themselves before they could do real damage. That combination — strength, support, low-volume pause, clean reclaim — is exactly the pattern the Relative Strength Engine is built to find. One honest flag worth naming: HTFL is not a profitable company. Negative margins, negative ROE, negative ROIC. Revenue is growing fast — $87M to $176M over three periods — and losses per share are narrowing, but this is a momentum and strength play, not a value play. The engine doesn't weigh profitability; it weighs price behavior. Still worth knowing where you stand.

The trade plan

The Relative Strength Engine entered at $49.58. The stop sits at $45.43 — that's $4.15 of risk per share, placed below today's low of $48.70 and designed to give the trade room to breathe without sitting in the noise. Our system's target is $57.87, roughly 2R from entry. We're committing approximately $5,206 to this position across 105 shares. The logic on the stop is clean: if HTFL loses the 20-day moving average with conviction, the thesis is broken — and we're out.

Position size: our paper account is putting about $5,206 (105 shares) into this trade, sized to risk roughly $436 if our stop is hit. This is what the system committed in its paper account — not a suggestion of how much you should put into any trade.

DAILY CLOSE · AS OF OCT 19, 2026 HTFL LAST $49.70 · AVG TARGET $46 25303540455055 MayJunJulAugSepOct Target$58Entry$50Stop$45

HTFL · Valuation & financial health

Price
$49.70
Analyst target
$46.14
Vs target
-7.2%
52-wk position
86% of range
P/E (TTM)
-35.0x
EV/EBITDA
-40.7x
DCF value
$-9
Net margin
-55.8%
ROE
-42%
ROIC
-24%
Altman Z
34.46
Piotroski
4/9
Consensus
Buy

Fundamentals via Financial Modeling Prep.

What could go wrong

Three open positions in the same name is concentration risk, full stop. Two of those positions are already negative — day 4 at -4.1%, day 5 at -4.8% — which means we're adding to a name that hasn't paid us yet on the earlier entries. The analyst consensus target of $46.14 sits below our entry, which is an unusual dynamic: the broader crowd is measurably more skeptical than our engine. The Altman Z-Score of 34.5 keeps financial distress off the near-term risk list, but a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is middling and worth keeping in view. SPY is essentially flat on the day, so there's no broad market tailwind doing any heavy lifting here. If this level fails, all three HTFL positions move against us at once — that's the scenario we're managing against.

One more thought before we go

Our win rate is 0% through 24 closed trades, and the account is still up 3.5% against a flat SPY over the same 75 days. That math only works because open positions like TEAM are carrying serious unrealized gains — gains that haven't hit the closed-trade column yet. At some point, they will. When they do, the win rate either starts moving or it doesn't. That's the real question in front of this system right now: whether the edge shows up in closed trades before the open gains come in.

See how the system backtests →

How our rebuilt system performs against the S&P 500 in testing — year by year, with the honest caveats.


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