The market gave us +1.16%. Our engine found something bigger.
The week at a glance
IOVA and TWST closed this week. Combined, they added over 120 percentage points of raw P&L between them — and that is the story of the week. Full stop. Here's the quick snapshot for October 5–9: - **Week return:** +4.59% - **SPY same week:** +1.16% - **Week alpha:** +3.43% - **Cumulative alpha (70 days):** +4.59% - **Signals skipped (watchlist days):** 1 Day 70 of the experiment. Every open position in the portfolio — every single one — came from the Relative Strength Engine. No Breakout Engine signals. No Mean Reversion signals. That's not a design choice; it's just what the system has been surfacing. Worth sitting with for a moment.
Trades we closed this week
**IOVA — closed October 6 | +73.62% P&L, +72.24% alpha** Entered at $8.15 on September 11. Exited at $12.96 when the trailing stop triggered. That's a 73.6% move in 25 days on a name most of the market was shrugging at. The Relative Strength Engine flagged it early. We held, the stop did its job, and we're out clean. **TWST — closed October 6 | +51.00% P&L, +48.70% alpha** Entered at $135.76 on September 15. Exited at $177.52 on the same stop-out day as IOVA. Two positions, same engine, same exit date. The system concentrated its risk and got rewarded. That also means a bad October 6 could have looked very different — something worth keeping in mind as the book continues to build. **CAI — two positions, both closed October 7 | -4.10% and -5.98%** Here's the part we don't skip. CAI was opened on October 2 at $28.63 and again on October 5 at $29.20. Both stopped out two days later at $26.09 and $26.42 respectively. Combined alpha drag: roughly -12 points across the two trades. The Relative Strength Engine saw something it liked; the stock disagreed. Stops fired, losses were capped, we moved on. That's the job. It still stings a little.
What we tuned this week
No mechanical changes to the system this week. What we did do is let the sizing rules run without overriding them — including adding to CRNX for the 14th time. That position ladder stretches all the way back to August 5. Entries range from $83.93 to $84.99, all still open, all slightly positive except the most recent, which sits at -0.05%. A slow grind — but every rung of that ladder is above water except one, and that one is barely a rounding error. New positions opened this week: - **RNG** — two entries on October 7 ($77.42) and October 8 ($77.88). Both up small so far, +2.39% and +1.78%. - **ASST** — one entry on October 9 at $28.99. Down -4.10% on day one. Uncomfortable, but day-one P&L is noise until the stop says otherwise. TEAM now carries three open legs — from September 9, September 10, and October 1. The oldest is up nearly 15%. The newest is up nearly 11%. The Relative Strength Engine keeps re-flagging it, and so far the market keeps agreeing.
What we're cautious about next week
A few things worth watching as we head into next week. **Concentration.** CRNX has 14 open positions. TEAM has three. That's significant exposure to two names. If either one reverses sharply, the stop ladders trigger in sequence — and a week that looks quiet on Monday could look very different by Friday. **ASST opened down.** A -4.10% day-one print isn't a crisis, but it isn't comfortable either. It hasn't hit the stop yet. We're watching. **HTFL** sits at -1.49% with negative alpha. The only other position in the red besides ASST. Not a flashing light — but it's on the screen. The broader market had a decent week — SPY +1.16% — and most of our alpha came from two closed trades, not from the open book broadly outperforming. That's fine. But it does mean next week's alpha is less certain. The closed positions did the heavy lifting. Now the open ones have to carry it forward.
Looking ahead to Monday
Seventy days in. Two trades closed at 50%+ gains. Two trades stopped out at roughly 5% losses. The Relative Strength Engine is the only engine that's fired all year — which either means it's the right tool for this market, or the other engines are waiting for conditions that haven't arrived yet. Probably some of both. Next week we find out whether ASST was a rough open or a bad signal. Whether RNG has any follow-through. Whether CRNX ever decides to do something interesting. Should be a quiet one. It probably won't be.
How our rebuilt system performs against the S&P 500 in testing — year by year, with the honest caveats.
Keep exploring
- How we trade → — the exact rules behind every trade: the signals, the triggers, the sizing.
- How we built this → — the six losing trades, the rebuild, and the walk-forward gate.
- Browse the archive → — every signal we've published.
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