One exit locked in. One monster position still running.
Today's market and our positions
IOVA is up 77.9% and still open. That single sentence tells you almost everything you need to know about this portfolio right now. SPY slipped another -0.12% today and settled near $764.70 — quiet, slightly heavy, nothing that made headlines. The Relative Strength Engine didn't fire anything new today, but it didn't need to. What's already on the board is doing the heavy lifting. Day 62 of the experiment. System up +4.3%, SPY flat over the same window. Alpha: +4.3 points. The win rate technically sat at 0% — zero closed winners out of 19 closed trades — but RNG just changed that math. A few more exits like this one and the scoreboard flips fast.
What our open trades are doing
IOVA (day 19, +77.9%) is the position everyone's watching — and for good reason. The Relative Strength Engine flagged it at $8.15. It's now trading at $14.50. That's not a typo. Nineteen days in, and there's still no mechanical reason to exit — the trail hasn't triggered. We're letting the system do its job and staying out of its way. TWST (day 15, +37.1%) is running the same playbook at a lower altitude. Entry $135.76, now $186.13. The Relative Strength Engine is holding this one on identical logic: the trail hasn't touched it, so neither do we. CRNX is a different story. We're carrying 14 open lots — days 30 through 56 — and today every single one closed at exactly its entry price. That's not a rounding artifact; something in the data froze the mark. Across those 14 positions, alpha ranges from -0.21% to +1.76% depending on what SPY did during each hold window. They're not losing. They're just not moving. We want to see a live print at tomorrow's open before we put too much weight on these numbers. TEAM (days 20 and 21) is the softer spot in the book. Down -3.1% and -2.2% respectively, both lagging SPY. The Relative Strength Engine held them in at $181.65 and $179.86. Neither has hit a stop yet — but if you're looking for the positions we're least comfortable with right now, these are them. HURN opened today (day 1) at $158.90 and marked at $156.36 by the close — a -1.60% loss on the first print. Day 1 noise is normal. It gets a chance to earn its spot tomorrow.
Today's closed trades, post-mortem
RNG closed today. Here's the honest recap. Entry: $69.55. Exit: $73.00. Hold: 16 days. Return: +4.96%. SPY over that same window: +0.44%. Alpha: +4.52%. Exit reason: trail_win — the trailing stop triggered after the position moved far enough in our favor that locking it in was the right mechanical call. No discretion involved. The system flagged it, the system closed it. This is exactly the kind of exit that makes the win-rate number look misleading. The portfolio is net positive, alpha is positive, and RNG contributed cleanly. It's not a home run — but it's a disciplined close on a real setup that worked, and that's what this system is built to deliver.
What could change by tomorrow's open
A few things to keep an eye on before tomorrow's open. The CRNX pricing issue is the first one — 14 positions all marked at entry is unusual enough that we need to see a live print before we trust what those numbers are telling us. If those positions reprice lower at the open, the portfolio P&L picture shifts. Second, TEAM is drifting the wrong direction in both legs. Neither stop has triggered yet, but these are the names worth checking early. Third, SPY is carrying a slightly heavy tone. It's not breaking down — but if it opens soft again, IOVA and TWST are sitting on enough unrealized P&L that a pullback in biotech or genomics could bring trail stops into play on either position. That would be the system working exactly as designed — but it's worth knowing before it happens.
What we're watching tomorrow
Tomorrow morning the Relative Strength Engine scans again. With IOVA and TWST both showing strong momentum and SPY carrying a mild negative tilt, the real question is whether the engine surfaces something new — or decides the best opportunities are already sitting in the book. Honestly? That second outcome wouldn't be wrong.
How our rebuilt system performs against the S&P 500 in testing — year by year, with the honest caveats.
Keep exploring
- How we trade → — the exact rules behind every trade: the signals, the triggers, the sizing.
- How we built this → — the six losing trades, the rebuild, and the walk-forward gate.
- Browse the archive → — every signal we've published.
- Latest signals → — today's morning and afternoon reads.
- Follow by RSS → — morning, afternoon, or Sunday recap.