One RS leader is closer to confirming than it's been all month

What the system saw

TEAM spent the last week leaning on its 20-day moving average. This morning, it bounced. That's the whole setup — but the context behind it is what made the Relative Strength Engine pull the trigger. Over the past 63 trading days, Atlassian has outperformed 97% of the market. That's not a stock drifting sideways. That's a name that's been leading, pulled back to a logical level, and reclaimed it. Today's low was $174.46. Prior close was $177.74. The stock pushed back above both by the open — exactly the reclaim signature the engine is built to find. We're in on TEAM now, day 1, sitting at -1.2% as we write this.

Why our Relative Strength Engine liked it

When a stock carries that kind of relative strength and dips to the 20-day, what you're watching is buyers defending something they care about. The 20dma sits at $175.71 right now. TEAM is about 2.1% above it — close enough that this still reads as a support test, not a clean recovery. The Relative Strength Engine scored this a 66 out of 100. A decent signal. Not a screaming one. That conviction gap is worth naming honestly — this is a setup we like, not one we love. On the fundamental side, TEAM's financials are messy by conventional measures: negative margins, a deeply negative P/E, a DCF fair value that comes in around $70. What the numbers do show is that revenue has grown from $4.4B to $6.6B over three years, and EPS losses are narrowing fast — from -$1.16 down to -$0.21. This is a growth story, not a value story. The stock is trading near analyst consensus targets, so there's no obvious fundamental tailwind to lean on. The trade is a technical one, full stop.

The trade plan

Our system entered at $179.49. The stop is $161.37 — that's $18.11 of risk per share, set below a level that, if broken, would invalidate the entire structure that made this worth taking. The 2R target is $215.71. We're putting about $4,846 behind it — 27 shares in the paper account. If TEAM slices through $161 with conviction, we're out. If it grinds toward $215, we let the engine manage the exit.

Position size: our paper account is putting about $4,846 (27 shares) into this trade, sized to risk roughly $489 if our stop is hit. This is what the system committed in its paper account — not a suggestion of how much you should put into any trade.

What could go wrong

A 66/100 conviction score means the engine saw something worth acting on — not something it's certain about. The overall system is sitting at a 0% win rate through 16 closed trades at Day 48. That's a cold stretch, and we're watching it closely. TEAM itself is already slightly underwater since entry. The fundamentals don't offer a cushion here — this is purely a price-action and relative-strength trade, which means if the technical picture breaks, there's no earnings floor to fall back on. The broader market is flat today, SPY essentially unchanged, which makes the tape neutral rather than helpful.

One more thought before we go

Forty-eight days in and the win column is still empty. That's uncomfortable, and we're not going to pretend otherwise. What we're watching now is whether the open positions — most of them CRNX, quietly green — eventually close into realized gains, or whether this streak runs deeper before it turns. TEAM is the newest name in the mix. The setup is clean. Whether clean is enough in this tape, we're about to find out.