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This setup cleared two filters most RS names never reach

A 96th-percentile name tapped support and refused to break — here's where our engine moved.
TEAM · Relative Strength · score 62.1/100
EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 47 System: -0.3% | SPY (same window): +0.0% | Alpha: -0.3% Win rate: 0% (0/15) Open positions: CRNX (day 35, +1.2%), CRNX (day 30, +0.9%), CRNX (day 29, +0.8%), CRNX (day 28, +0.6%), CRNX (day 27, +0.5%), CRNX (day 26, +0.4%), CRNX (day 23, +0.3%), CRNX (day 22, +0.2%), CRNX (day 21, +0.2%), CRNX (day 20, +0.3%), CRNX (day 19, +0.2%), CRNX (day 16, +0.2%), QLYS (day 14, -3.7%), NWL (day 12, +3.8%), CRNX (day 12, +0.1%), CRNX (day 9, -0.0%), CAKE (day 7, -2.4%)

What the system saw

TEAM gave us the tap-and-recover we'd been watching for. The stock dipped to $174.21 intraday — right at its 20-day moving average ($174.52) — then clawed back, closing above it at $179.72. That's the setup: a controlled dip to clean support, a hold, and a reclaim. It's exactly what the Relative Strength Engine is built to catch. TEAM sits in the 96th percentile for relative strength over the past 63 days, which means it's been outpacing 96% of the market during a stretch when most names were going nowhere or lower. When a stock that strong pulls back to a clean level and refuses to break, that's not noise. That's worth paying attention to.

Why our Relative Strength Engine liked it

The thesis is straightforward: strong stocks that digest gains at moving average support tend to keep moving. TEAM's RS score didn't appear overnight — it's been building for months. Revenue has grown from $4.4B to $6.6B over three years, and EPS losses have narrowed meaningfully, from -$1.16 to -$0.21. The business is trending in the right direction. The valuation, though, is harder to hold — a P/E of -857x and an EV/EBITDA north of 300x tell you the market is pricing in years of future growth, not what the company earns today. The DCF fair value sits around $70. The average analyst target is $176.15, which is actually below where it's trading right now. We're not papering over that. What keeps the risk profile manageable is the Altman Z-Score of 5.45 — the balance sheet isn't in distress, and that matters when you're riding a high-multiple name. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is middling, neither a warning sign nor a vote of confidence. This is a momentum and technicals play. Not a value play. Eyes open.

The trade plan

The Relative Strength Engine entered TEAM at $179.72. The stop is set at $160.46 — that's $19.26 of risk per share. The system's target is $218.25, which works out to roughly a 2R trade if it plays out. We put about $4,852 behind it — 27 shares in the paper account. The entry triggered on the 20dma bounce and reclaim after today's intraday low. If TEAM loses the $160 level, we're out. No debate, no waiting for one more candle.

Position size: our paper account is putting about $4,852 (27 shares) into this trade, sized to risk roughly $520 if our stop is hit. This is what the system committed in its paper account — not a suggestion of how much you should put into any trade.

DAILY CLOSE · AS OF SEP 9, 2026 TEAM LAST $180.05 · AVG TARGET $176 5075100125150175200225 AprMayJunJulAugSep Target$218Entry$180Stop$160

TEAM · Valuation & financial health

Price
$180.05
Analyst target
$176.15
Vs target
-2.2%
52-wk position
87% of range
P/E (TTM)
-857.4x
EV/EBITDA
313.1x
DCF value
$70
Net margin
-0.8%
ROE
-4%
ROIC
-1%
Altman Z
5.45
Piotroski
5/9
Consensus
Buy

Fundamentals via Financial Modeling Prep.

What could go wrong

Conviction came in at 62.1 out of 100 — a real signal, but not one of our high-confidence prints. TEAM is trading at 87% of its 52-week range, so there's not much room for error on valuation if the narrative shifts. High-multiple names like this one tend to get hit hardest when the broader market softens, and right now the broader market isn't giving anyone a lot of cover. The stop at $160.46 sits below recent support structure, giving the trade room to breathe — but that also means $19.26 per share on the line if it goes wrong. There's one more thing worth naming: the open book is already heavy on CRNX positions, and both QLYS and CAKE are sitting in the red. We're carrying paper losses, which means position sizing discipline matters more right now, not less.

One more thought before we go

Day 47 of the paper account. We're sitting at a 0% win rate on closed trades, with the system down -0.3% against SPY's flat performance over the same window. That's not a comfortable place to be adding a new position — and we're not pretending otherwise. But the process is the process. We take the setups the engine surfaces, we manage the risk, and we let enough trades play out to know what we actually have. TEAM is either going to validate the RS bounce thesis or it's going to hand us another lesson. Either way, we'll know more in a few weeks than we do right now — and that's exactly how this is supposed to work.

See how the system backtests →

How our rebuilt system performs against the S&P 500 in testing — year by year, with the honest caveats.


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