The market showed up. One name stopped at 43.8.

Why no trade today

KNSA got to 43.8 this morning and then just... stopped. Our Relative Strength Engine needs a 50 to pull the trigger. We didn't get there. So no trade fired today — and we're not going to force one. Day 43 of the experiment. The system sits at -0.5% while SPY has returned +1.9% over the same window. That's a -2.4% gap, and we're putting it right in front of you. Win rate is 0-for-15 on closed trades. The open book is doing the heavy lifting — seventeen positions, most of them CRNX, most of them green by small amounts. QLYS is the sore spot at -3.4% on day 8. NWL is down 2.1%. CAKE opened yesterday and is already off 1.1%. Not pretty. But none of that changes how we run the engine. The threshold is 50. KNSA hit 43.8. We wait.

Three names we're watching closest

Here's what makes KNSA the most interesting name on the board right now: it's sitting right on 20-day moving average support at $78.53 with price at $80.24. The Relative Strength Engine already has it in the top tier of the RS scan — it just needs two more things to fall into place. First, price has to hold that 20dma. Second, we want a clean intraday reversal pattern — something that tells us buyers stepped in with conviction, not just drift. If those two show up together, the score climbs fast. MKTX is the next name worth your attention. The Breakout Engine has it at 47.4 — actually the highest score of the three candidates today. Price is $163.10 and the consolidation high is $162.84, so this is a stock sitting less than 0.2% below its range high. Volume isn't the problem — today's reading came in at 2.10x average, well above the 1.5x the engine wants. The gap lives somewhere else in the scoring composite. That's what keeps it off the trigger today. CMBT rounds out the watchlist. Breakout Engine, score 45.3, price $18.97 with a consolidation high at $18.85. Volume is running 2.13x average. Same story as MKTX — the raw ingredients are present, but the total score isn't clearing the bar yet.

What would trigger us tomorrow

No entry levels to share today — nothing triggered. Here's what we're watching for tomorrow: KNSA holding $78.53 and showing a reversal candle on the open or mid-session. MKTX clearing $162.84 with that volume sustaining. CMBT pushing through $18.85 with similar confirmation. If any of these score above 50 when the scan runs, we'll be ready. The engine runs the same way every morning — no discretion added, no gut calls layered on top. The score is the score.

The cost of waiting (or forcing it)

The risk of waiting isn't zero. Markets move while we sit on our hands, and there's a very real version of this where KNSA rips without us. That happens. It will probably happen again. But the bigger risk — the one that's actually hurt us in this experiment — is taking setups the engine doesn't fully endorse. Forcing a trade below the threshold is how you stack losses on names that looked close but weren't ready. We've seen enough of that already. The discipline isn't a consolation prize. It's the whole point.

One more thought before we go

Day 43 and we're still -2.4% behind SPY. That's uncomfortable to publish, and we're publishing it anyway. The question that matters isn't whether today stings — it's whether the engine finds a real edge before the gap widens further. KNSA is the closest thing we've got right now. We'll see what it does with that 20dma overnight.