The number that tells SNOW's real story on day 36

Today's market and our positions

The win rate is 0% on 14 closed trades. That number is sitting right there in the synopsis block, and I'm not going to paper over it. What I will say is this: SNOW is up 22.3% in 36 days while SPY has moved 3.8% over the same window — and that one position is carrying a lot of the system's weight right now. Today SPY dipped about a quarter percent and closed near $767. Nothing dramatic. The kind of session where nothing breaks and nothing heals — just the market marking time. We closed two trades. Both losers. Let's get into it.

What our open trades are doing

SNOW (Relative Strength Engine, day 36) is the headline position. Entry was $270.92, it's now $331.51, and the alpha gap over SPY in that window sits at +18.6 percentage points. The Relative Strength Engine found this one while it was already moving and let it run. That's the design — not to catch bottoms, but to stay on strength. QLYS (day 6) is doing exactly what a fresh RS signal is supposed to do: up 5.25% against SPY's +0.12% over the same stretch. Early days, but clean and cooperative. NWL (day 4) is small-cap and small-gain so far, +2.3% versus a slightly negative SPY — fine for this stage of the signal. Then there's CRNX, which is the unusual one. We have twelve separate positions in it, ranging from day 1 to day 27, with entries clustered between $83.93 and $84.99. The stock sits at $84.96. Most of those are fractionally green, a couple are fractionally flat or red, and the oldest position (day 27) is the only one with any real breathing room. The Relative Strength Engine kept re-entering CRNX every time it triggered — that's not a mistake, that's the signal repeating. Whether that concentration becomes a problem depends entirely on what CRNX does next.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

Two DFTX positions closed today. Both stopped out. First: entered at $45.17, exited at $39.22 — a -13.17% loss over 7 days, with alpha versus SPY over that window of -13.32%. Second: entered at $44.76, exited at $39.95 — a -10.75% loss over 5 days, alpha -10.22%. DFTX was a Relative Strength signal that reversed hard and fast. The stops did what they were designed to do: they cut the damage before it compounded. These weren't held through the drawdown hoping for a bounce. Exit reason on both: stop_hit. That's the system working correctly — even when the outcome is a loss. It still stings the scoreboard. These two exits are a meaningful drag on the +0.6% system return versus SPY's +2.1% across the full 41-day window. We're sitting at -1.5% alpha overall. Honest number. Worth watching closely.

What could change by tomorrow's open

The CRNX concentration is the main thing to watch right now. Twelve positions in a single name, all entered between $83.93 and $84.99, with the stock at $84.96. If CRNX pulls back, it hits nearly all of those positions simultaneously — that's not diversification in any meaningful sense, and the book reflects it. The Relative Strength Engine was executing its signal correctly each time, but the cumulative result is a portfolio that's heavily dependent on one stock staying flat or pushing higher. Elsewhere, SNOW is 36 days in and up over 22% — at some point the engine will evaluate whether that position gets a defined exit or a trail. We haven't seen that trigger yet, but it's coming. And SPY isn't in a strong trend right now, which means RS signals are working in a harder environment than the model prefers.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the engines scan fresh. If CRNX moves meaningfully in either direction overnight, that's the first thing to check when you open the scoreboard. And with a 0% win rate on closed trades through day 41, the next closed winner carries more weight than the raw number suggests — not because one trade fixes anything, but because it would tell us whether the engine's open positions are just delayed, or something else entirely.