August 27, 2026

Do not ignore what the open book is doing right now

Two positions are pulling serious alpha — and one name is sitting on a very short leash.

Scoreboard Update

EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 39 System: +2.3% | SPY (same window): +2.6% | Alpha: -0.4% Win rate: 0% (0/10) Open positions: SNOW (day 32, +21.5%), CORT (day 31, +27.2%), CRNX (day 23, +1.1%), SLS (day 21, +25.2%), CRNX (day 18, +0.7%), CRNX (day 17, +0.7%), CRNX (day 16, +0.4%), CRNX (day 15, +0.4%), CRNX (day 14, +0.3%), CRNX (day 11, +0.2%), CRNX (day 10, +0.1%), CRNX (day 9, +0.1%), CRNX (day 8, +0.2%), CRNX (day 7, +0.1%), CRNX (day 4, +0.1%), DFTX (day 3, -3.0%), QLYS (day 2, +6.6%), DFTX (day 1, -2.1%)

Today's market and our positions

SPY added 0.61% today and closed near $770.75. Day 39 of the experiment, and the honest tally is this: system +2.3%, SPY +2.6%, alpha -0.4%. We're slightly behind the index on a closed-trade basis, with a 0/10 win rate on completed positions. That's the number that holds our attention. The open book, though, tells a more complicated story — SNOW and CORT are doing real work, CRNX is treading water across a dozen entries, and two new positions this week are still finding their footing. Nothing closed today, so the scoreboard barely moved in either direction. What matters now is whether the open positions start converting.

What our open trades are doing

SNOW (day 32) is the standout right now — entry at $270.92, now $326.00, up 20.33% while SPY gained 4.33% over the same window. That's +16 points of alpha on a single name. CORT (day 31) is close behind: entry $91.92, now $116.93, up 27.21% against SPY's 4.08% — alpha of +23.13%. These two are carrying the portfolio, and they've earned it. SLS (day 21) is quietly doing its job too — up 25.84% since entry at $12.15, against a slightly negative SPY over that window. That's a clean +26.12% alpha reading. Not flashy. Just working. CRNX is the conversation. Eleven separate entries ranging from day 4 to day 23, all priced between $83.93 and $84.79, all sitting at $84.85 right now. The gains are fractions of a percent across most entries. The alpha is mixed: older entries are marginally positive versus SPY, while the more recent ones are lagging a quiet but upward-trending index. CRNX isn't hurting us much — but it isn't helping either. We're watching it closely. QLYS (day 2) opened at $176.86 and sits at $188.59, up 6.63% with alpha of nearly +6%. Early days, but that's a solid start for the Relative Strength Engine on a name we just added. DFTX is the problem child. Two entries — day 1 at $44.76 and day 3 at $45.17 — both sitting at $43.82, down 2.1% and 3.0% respectively. The alpha is negative on both. We don't exit on noise, but DFTX is on a short leash.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

No trades closed today. Nothing to post-mortem. The 0/10 win rate on closed positions stays on the board — we're not hiding from it. It's real, and it's what we're working against every day the open positions stay open. The thesis is straightforward: SNOW, CORT, and SLS eventually close at a profit and change that picture. The open book still has the room to do it.

What could change by tomorrow's open

A few things worth tracking before tomorrow's open. DFTX has two entries both sitting in the red — if it gaps down or keeps drifting, a decision is coming. CRNX represents a lot of position concentration in a name that's essentially flat; any unexpected sector weakness in biotech could move all those entries at once. And the broader market — SPY is up 2.6% over our 39-day window, which isn't alarming on its own, but if that reverses sharply, the names without a wide alpha cushion — CRNX and DFTX — feel it first.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the Relative Strength Engine runs its full scan. With QLYS showing early momentum and SNOW still trending, the question is whether the engine finds something that complements what's already in the book — or flags a name in a completely different sector. Worth checking in before the open.

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Dear Friend,

Here is something they never taught you in school:

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The second dollar was born in secret.

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$100 invested in American stocks in 1974 grew to more than $30,000.

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The second dollar hid for 41 years. The third one is hiding in plain sight - for now.

Which side will you be on?

See the third dollar here >>

“The Buck Stops Here”

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets

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