August 11, 2026

The number our closed-trade record needs to change is one

Three stops hit the same name on the same day — and the open book is doing something different.

Scoreboard Update

EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 27 System: +1.8% | SPY (same window): +2.6% | Alpha: -0.8% Win rate: 0% (0/8) Open positions: SNOW (day 16, +23.3%), CORT (day 15, +21.7%), PIII (day 8, +20.7%), CRNX (day 7, +0.5%), PIII (day 6, +18.4%), SLS (day 5, -9.1%), CRNX (day 2, +0.2%), CRNX (day 1, +0.1%)

Today's market and our positions

EVC handed us three losses today — all at the stop. That stings. But it's also exactly how the system is supposed to work. We had three separate entries in EVC across different days, and all three got taken out on the same move. The position sizing was never dangerously stacked, but three entries in the same name means three stop-outs when that name breaks down. That's a dynamic worth sitting with. Everywhere else, the book held its ground. SPY dipped 0.35% today and closed around $770.29. Most of our open positions barely flinched. SNOW and CORT are still running well above their entries, and the two PIII positions have been quietly doing their job for over a week now.

What our open trades are doing

SNOW (day 16, entry $270.92, now $332.20, +22.62%): Still the strongest position on the sheet in dollar terms. It's up more than 18 points against SPY over the same window. The Relative Strength Engine flagged this one early, and it hasn't given us a single reason to second-guess that read. CORT (day 15, entry $91.92, now $111.86, +21.69%): Nearly identical story to SNOW — strong alpha, clean trend, no drama. Day 15, and it's still acting like a fresh breakout. That's exactly the kind of relative strength this engine is built to find. PIII (day 8 + day 6, entries $10.25 and $10.45, now $12.37): Two entries, both profitable, both up over 18%. A small-cap name holding a two-week move while SPY essentially went nowhere today. We'll watch for any signs of fatigue, but so far there's no reason to rush for the exit. CRNX (days 7, 2, and 1, entries $83.93 / $84.22 / $84.26, now $84.36): Three positions and we're essentially treading water. Not a loss — but not much of anything else, either. If CRNX doesn't start pulling away from its entries, we'll need to reassess. This one is on a short clock. SLS (day 5, entry $12.15, now $11.01, -9.38%): The weakest name in the book right now. Down 9.4% and lagging SPY. This one's on a very short leash.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

EVC closed three positions today — all stopped out. - 29-day hold: Entered $11.75, exited $9.93. Loss of -15.52%. SPY gained +2.50% over the same window. Alpha: -18.02%. - 13-day hold: Entered $11.55, exited $10.13. Loss of -12.31%. SPY gained +3.90% over the same window. Alpha: -16.21%. - 9-day hold: Entered $11.39, exited $10.04. Loss of -11.83%. SPY gained +1.71% over the same window. Alpha: -13.53%. All three hit stops. The exit reason is clean — the system did what it's supposed to do. The harder question is whether three entries into the same name at different points was the right call. We're sitting with that one. The win rate on closed trades is now 0 for 8. We're not going to bury that number: 0% win rate through day 27. The open book looks better than that figure, but the closed trades are telling a different story right now — and that gap is the one to watch.

What could change by tomorrow's open

SLS is the name that deserves the most attention tomorrow. It's the only open position in meaningful drawdown, and if it opens weak again, the stop won't be far behind. CRNX is worth a harder look too — three positions bunched within cents of each other is another EVC-style setup if the stock decides to roll over. The broader market had a soft close today, and if SPY continues lower tomorrow, the names that have been coasting — CRNX especially — will face real pressure. SNOW and CORT have enough cushion that one bad day probably doesn't threaten them. But nothing in this market is guaranteed.

What we're watching tomorrow

Right now, the open book is carrying the story. SNOW and CORT are doing the heavy lifting while the closed-trade record works to catch up. Tomorrow morning the Relative Strength Engine runs its scan again — and the real question isn't just what it finds, but whether we have room to act on it. Eight open positions, with CRNX stacked three deep and PIII sitting two deep, means concentration risk is already in the picture. The EVC outcome is a pretty fresh reminder of what that looks like when a name goes the wrong way.

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“The Buck Stops Here”

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets

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