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Do not ignore what SNOW just did in twelve days

One position is up over 22% — and the harder question is what happens next.
Scoreboard Update
EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 25 System: +4.0% | SPY (same window): +2.9% | Alpha: +1.1% Win rate: 0% (0/5) Open positions: EVC (day 25, +1.9%), SNOW (day 12, +22.0%), CORT (day 11, +20.5%), EVC (day 9, +3.6%), EVC (day 5, +5.1%), PIII (day 4, +13.0%), CRNX (day 3, +0.2%), PIII (day 2, +10.8%), SLS (day 1, -1.2%)

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Today's market and our positions

SNOW is up 22% in twelve days. We didn't plan for that number — we're managing it now. The Relative Strength Engine has been doing quiet, methodical work across a handful of names, and today's session gave most of them a little more room to breathe. SPY added 0.56% and closed near $772.86 — a gentle tailwind, not a raging bull day. Nothing dramatic happened. That's fine. A lot of good trades look boring in the middle, and boring in the middle is exactly where you want to be.

What our open trades are doing

Let's walk the board. SNOW (day 12, +21.84%) and CORT (day 11, +20.51%) are carrying the bulk of the alpha right now — both Relative Strength Engine holds that kept doing exactly what they were supposed to do. SNOW is outpacing SPY by 17+ points from entry; CORT by 16+. At this point, those aren't flukes. They're positions. PIII has two separate entries — day 4 at +12.98% and day 2 at +10.81% — both showing strong alpha against a market that barely moved on those entry days. The Relative Strength Engine added it twice because it kept qualifying. We're watching both legs closely as the name pushes into extended territory. EVC is the complicated one. Three open entries — day 25, day 9, and day 5 — at slightly different prices with slightly different alpha pictures. The day-25 and day-9 entries are underperforming SPY on a relative basis, though both are green in absolute terms. Only the day-5 entry carries positive alpha at +3.04%. It's not a clean story, and we're not going to pretend it is. CRNX (day 3, +0.18%) is essentially flat — nothing broken, nothing exciting. SLS opened today at entry $12.15 and is already -1.15%, with zero SPY movement as context. Day one, early — no conclusions yet, but it's on the radar.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

No trades closed today — nothing to post-mortem. The board is all open positions, all still held under the Relative Strength Engine's rules. The closed-trade log gets updated the moment something exits.

What could change by tomorrow's open

A few things worth naming before tomorrow's open. EVC's three-position stack means any sharp move down hits in triplicate — concentration risk that didn't look like concentration risk when the entries were spaced out over time. SNOW and CORT have both run hard; if sector rotation pulls money out of their respective spaces, the biggest winners could give back ground quickly. SLS is the wildcard — a one-day-old position already in the red, with no catalyst buffer built up yet. And the broader market is sitting near highs, which means a macro headline overnight could gap things sideways before the engines get a chance to react. We're not predicting that. Just naming it so you're not surprised.

What we're watching tomorrow

Twenty-five days in, the system is up 4.0% against SPY's 2.9% — 1.1 points of alpha with a 0% realized win rate, because nothing has closed yet. That's an unusual scoreboard to sit with. Every point of outperformance is still on the table, still unrealized. Tomorrow morning the engines run fresh scans, and we'll find out if anything on the current board triggers an exit — or if something new earns a spot. PIII in particular is worth watching at the open.

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