The setup that worked best this week hasn't paid out yet

The week at a glance

CORT is up 24.5% in four days. On paper, that's a winning week. Except SPY ran +1.10% and we basically went nowhere. That's the tension we're sitting with this Sunday. The Relative Strength Engine fired five new signals this week: SNOW on Monday, CORT on Tuesday, DDOG on Wednesday, and a second entry into EVC on Thursday. One position carried over from the prior week — SLS — hit its stop on Monday morning. Net result: a week return of -0.01%, SPY outperforming us by 110 basis points, and cumulative alpha since day one now sitting at +0.56%. Here's the full picture for the week: | Ticker | Engine | Entry | Status | P&L | Alpha | |--------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-------| | EVC | Relative Strength | $11.75 (Jul 14) | Open | -4.51% | -3.87% | | SLS | Relative Strength | $12.57 (Jul 21) | Closed — Stop | -9.94% | -8.69% | | SNOW | Relative Strength | $270.92 (Jul 27) | Open | +8.25% | +7.18% | | CORT | Relative Strength | $91.92 (Jul 28) | Open | +24.55% | +23.72% | | DDOG | Relative Strength | $254.75 (Jul 29) | Open | +5.19% | +2.78% | | EVC | Relative Strength | $11.55 (Jul 30) | Open | -2.86% | -3.58% | We also passed on one signal this week — a watchlist day where the setup didn't clear our entry criteria. That's not a miss. That's the system doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

Trades we closed this week

SLS is the one that deserves an honest look. It entered at $12.57 on July 21, and by Monday the 27th it had dropped far enough to trigger our stop. Exit at $10.24. That's a -9.94% loss on the position and -8.69% alpha — meaning the stock didn't just fall, it fell harder than the market. That's the worst kind of loss: not a rising-tide-lowers-all-boats situation, but a name breaking down on its own. No excuses here. The Relative Strength Engine flagged it, the signal looked clean at entry, and the stop did exactly what it was designed to do — it kept a bad trade from becoming a worse one. Win rate on closed trades is now 0 for 4. That number is real and it's uncomfortable. What I'd point to is that the four open positions are currently carrying enough unrealized gain — CORT especially — that the math isn't as grim as 0-for-4 sounds. But unrealized gains aren't realized gains, and we don't get to spend them until they close. The second EVC entry on Thursday is worth a note. The first EVC position, opened July 14, is down 4.5% and still open. The engine re-entered at $11.55 on a new signal — not because we were averaging down manually, but because EVC re-qualified on relative strength criteria and earned a fresh entry on its own terms. Whether that's a feature or a flaw is something we'll keep watching as it plays out.

What we tuned this week

Nothing changed in the system parameters this week. No tuning, no overrides. The Relative Strength Engine ran as designed: scan for names showing strength relative to the broad market, enter on confirmation, hold with a defined stop. What we did enforce was the watchlist-day discipline — one signal this week didn't clear our entry filter, and we passed. That's not a tweak; it's the system working as intended. Discipline on entries is where most of the real edge lives, and passing on a marginal setup is often the right call even when it doesn't feel like one in the moment. Going into next week, all five open positions are live: two EVC lots, SNOW, CORT, and DDOG. No new setups are pre-queued — the engine runs fresh scans each morning and we go from there.

What we're cautious about next week

The thing that makes next week both interesting and a little nerve-wracking is how much unrealized gain is sitting in CORT. A +24.55% open position looks great right now. It looks a lot less great if the market decides to give some of that back. The system doesn't take profits early — we hold until either the stop is hit or the target is reached — which means a sharp reversal in CORT would erase a significant chunk of what currently reads as a solid week. SPY outperformed us by 110 basis points on a week when the broad market was broadly strong. That's not a surprise — relative strength strategies tend to lag in straight-up tape environments because we're concentrated in fewer names rather than riding the index. If SPY runs another +1% next week, our open positions will need to pull more weight than they did this week. Also watching closely: the double EVC position. Two lots in the same name at different entries means EVC carries outsized influence on our weekly number. If it breaks lower from here, we feel it twice.

Looking ahead to Monday

Day 20. Win rate 0 for 4 on closed trades, cumulative alpha still slightly positive, and a +24.5% open position in CORT that hasn't closed yet. That's exactly where we stand. The next few days will tell us a lot — whether CORT becomes our first real closed winner, or hands back what it's built. Curious, and a little impatient, to find out.