July 24, 2026

A quiet tape that didn't help our two open names

SPY barely moved today — and that stillness may have told us something worth watching tonight.

Scoreboard Update

EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 15 System: -2.1% | SPY (same window): -1.6% | Alpha: -0.5% Win rate: 0% (0/3) Open positions: EVC (day 11, -9.1%), SLS (day 4, -9.9%)

Today's market and our positions

SPY did almost nothing today — up 0.04%, effectively unchanged. After the recent pressure, that probably sounds like a relief. It wasn't, not for us. Both EVC and SLS stayed in the red, and the market's mild stabilization wasn't enough to pull either name back toward entry. Through 15 days, the system is down 2.1% versus SPY's -1.6% over the same window. That's -0.5% alpha — not a disaster, but not where we want to be. Win rate sits at 0 for 3. We're saying it plainly because there's no other way to run this thing.

What our open trades are doing

EVC is the bigger concern right now, and it's on day 11. Entry was $11.75. It's sitting at $10.68 — that's -9.1% on the position while SPY lost 1.72% over the same stretch. The alpha bleed is -7.39%, which means EVC isn't just down — it's underperforming the index by a meaningful margin. The Relative Strength Engine flagged this one because it was holding up better than the market in the weeks before entry. That relative strength has since faded. We're watching to see whether it reasserts or keeps sliding. SLS is on day 4, entered at $12.57, now at $11.50 — down 8.51% against SPY's -1.25% over those four days. Alpha is -7.26%. That's a rough start. The Relative Strength Engine saw a name that was outpacing the tape going into the entry. So far, the tape has outpaced it instead. Four days isn't enough to write it off — but it's enough to watch closely.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

Nothing closed today. No post-mortem to run. The scorecard stays at 0 wins from 3 completed trades. The moment something crosses an exit threshold — win or loss — we'll update the closed-trade log.

What could change by tomorrow's open

The main thing to watch before tomorrow's open is whether EVC or SLS shows any sign of stabilizing. Both are far enough from their entries that one bad session could push either into stop territory. SPY going flat today didn't give us a clean read on direction — a follow-through move either way is on the table. If the broader market opens soft, these two names probably don't hold up well given where their relative strength currently stands. And if the market rips, there's no guarantee these names lead it.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the engines run the full scan again. We haven't had a new signal in a few days — and that's fine. The system doesn't manufacture setups when they aren't there. Whether anything surfaces depends on how tonight's futures settle and what shows up with volume at the open. We'll see what the tape brings.

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Which side will you be on?

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“The Buck Stops Here”

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets

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