July 22, 2026

The level our open positions needed today was $747

SPY barely flinched — but our book found the damage anyway. Here's what we're watching overnight.

Scoreboard Update

EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 13 System: -0.6% | SPY (same window): -0.5% | Alpha: -0.1% Win rate: 0% (0/2) Open positions: EVC (day 9, -11.1%), PIII (day 7, -12.0%), SLS (day 2, -3.9%)

Today's market and our positions

Three open positions, all underwater — and SPY barely moved. That's the uncomfortable version of how Day 13 went. The market didn't do much damage today, but our book managed to find some anyway. SPY closed near $747.36, down about 0.12% on the session. Our system sits at -0.6% total since inception, which puts us roughly a tenth of a percent behind the index. That's not a crisis. It's not where we want to be, either. No trades closed today, so there's nothing to post-mortem on the finished side — just three live positions that deserve an honest look.

What our open trades are doing

EVC is the one that stings. Nine days in at an entry of $11.75, and the stock is sitting at $10.45. That's -11.1% on the position while SPY gave back less than 1% over the same window. The Relative Strength Engine flagged this because EVC was showing leadership — it stopped showing leadership shortly after we got in. That happens. What we're watching now is whether any of the original thesis is still intact, or whether this has become plain old drift. PIII tells a similar story, maybe worse on paper. Day 7, entry at $11.20, now at $9.86 — down nearly 12% while the benchmark sits essentially flat. Two relative strength picks moving the wrong direction at the same time isn't a coincidence. It's a signal worth taking seriously about what the small-cap end of the relative strength universe is doing right now. SLS is the newest piece, just Day 2. Entry $12.57, now $12.09, down about 3.8%. Too early to say much. The Relative Strength Engine still sees the setup, and two days of price action don't tell us a whole lot — we're watching, not judging.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

No trades closed today, so there's no post-mortem to run. Win rate stays at 0-for-2 on completed trades. That number is going to look rough until we close something profitable, and we're not going to pretend otherwise. The scoreboard is honest about where we stand — and so are we.

What could change by tomorrow's open

The main risk heading into tomorrow is EVC and PIII continuing to slip without triggering a clean exit signal. Both are well past uncomfortable territory. If the small-cap relative strength trade is genuinely broken in this environment — and the price action is starting to suggest it might be — we could see more of the same before the system gets a chance to rotate out. SLS hasn't proven anything yet in either direction. A weak open tomorrow on low volume is worth watching closely on that one. SPY near $747 is also a level we're paying attention to. If the index loses that area, the whole board gets harder.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the engines run fresh scans. The question we'll be sitting with overnight is whether this is a setup-selection problem or an environment problem — because the fix looks very different depending on the answer. We're leaning toward environment, but we want more data before we say that with any confidence. More to come.

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$100 invested in American stocks in 1974 grew to more than $30,000.

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Which side will you be on?

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“The Buck Stops Here”

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets

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