July 3, 2026

Before you write off this drawdown, look at the alpha

Two positions are bleeding — but one number tells a different story about how this system behaves under pressure.

Scoreboard Update

EXPERIMENT UPDATE — Day 26 System: -0.4% | SPY (same window): -1.5% | Alpha: +1.2% Win rate: 75% (3/4) Open positions: PIII (day 19, -11.2%), CWAN (day 12, +0.2%), CUE (day 9, +6.9%), ENVA (day 4, -2.1%), ERNA (day 3, -12.9%), CUE (day 2, -4.2%)

Today's market and our positions

The market gave back ground today. We held up better than the index — not by doing anything clever, but by having the right mix of names in the right places. Twenty-six days in, the system sits at -0.4% versus SPY's -1.5% over the same window. That's +1.2% alpha earned during a rough stretch. Win rate on closed trades stands at 75% — 3 out of 4. None of that softens what's happening in PIII and ERNA, and we'll get there in a moment. But the broader picture is this: the system is treading water while SPY swims down, and on a day like today, that's genuinely useful information about how it behaves under pressure.

What our open trades are doing

Here's where each position stands going into tomorrow. **PIII (Relative Strength Engine, day 19):** Down 11.2% from our $12.81 entry, now sitting at $11.37. SPY is off 1.33% over the same window, which puts us nearly 10 percentage points behind the index. This is the ugliest line on the board. The Relative Strength Engine flagged PIII because it was holding up when other names weren't — that thesis is broken for now. We're watching whether the stop level does its job, or whether this one forces a harder conversation about position management. **CWAN (Breakout Engine, day 12):** Essentially flat — entry $24.52, now $24.56. The Breakout Engine flagged this when it cleared a key level; it hasn't done much with that clearance since. No harm done, but no progress either. Twelve days of sideways is tolerable as long as the name doesn't start sliding toward trouble. **CUE (Relative Strength Engine, day 9):** The best open trade on the board. Entry $26.43, now $28.26 — up 6.9% while SPY added just 1.4% over the same window. That's +5.5% alpha. The Relative Strength Engine has kept us in this one through the noise, and right now it's earning its keep. **ENVA (Breakout Engine, day 4):** Entry $240.16, now $235.19, down 2.1%. Only four days in, so we're not pulling any alarms yet — but it's sitting on the wrong side of entry while SPY is barely off over the same window. The Breakout Engine's thesis needs to show up, and soon. **ERNA (Relative Strength Engine, day 3):** Down 12.9% in three days from our $7.20 entry, now at $6.27. This one moved hard and fast against us. The alpha bleed versus SPY — -12.79% in three sessions — is significant. Stop discipline is the only thing that matters here right now. **CUE (Relative Strength Engine, day 2):** We're carrying two CUE positions. This newer leg entered at $29.49 on day 2 and sits at $28.26, down 4.2%. Because it entered above the day-9 position, it's underwater while that older leg is green. The Relative Strength Engine opened them separately and we track them that way — two entries, two stories.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

No trades closed today. Nothing to post-mortem, no exits to walk through. The scoreboard stays exactly where it was: 3 wins and 1 loss on completed trades.

What could change by tomorrow's open

Two positions — PIII and ERNA — are carrying real drawdown right now, and both came from the Relative Strength Engine. If the broader market softens again tomorrow, those are the names most likely to test stop levels first. ENVA is only four days old but already offside; a second consecutive down day could force a decision there too. CWAN is the quiet one — flat is fine, until it isn't. CUE day 9 is the hedge against all of it: if it keeps running, it absorbs some of the damage the others are inflicting.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the engines run their full scan. But with PIII and ERNA both under stress, the first question isn't what new setups appear — it's whether those two force our hand before the opening bell gives us anything new to work with.

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Dear Friend,

Here is something they never taught you in school:

The dollar in your pocket is not the dollar your grandparents used. It isn't even the dollar your parents started their careers with.

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The second dollar was born in secret.

In the summer of 1974, the U.S. Treasury Secretary boarded an 8:00 a.m. flight out of Andrews Air Force Base. The official story: routine diplomacy. The real mission: a four-day layover in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and a private offer for the king.

The deal they struck quietly re-anchored the dollar - not to gold, but to oil.

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Here's what the second dollar did while it stayed hidden:

$100 invested in American stocks in 1974 grew to more than $30,000.

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Now look at what's happening in 2026.

Central banks are hoarding gold at the fastest pace in over half a century. The BRICS bloc is openly building a system to settle trade outside the dollar. The biggest banks on Earth are quietly replacing the locks on their own vaults.

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The second dollar hid for 41 years. The third one is hiding in plain sight - for now.

Which side will you be on?

See the third dollar here >>

“The Buck Stops Here”

Kelly Maguire

Behind the Markets

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