A strange split just appeared in our open positions

The week at a glance

PIII is down 16% in five days. That's where we start. This week wasn't clean. We closed one stop-out, hit one clean target, and we're carrying two open positions into next week — one of them hurting. Net result: -0.73% for the system versus +0.67% for SPY. That's a -1.41% alpha week. Not what we wanted. Still, zoom out one tick: cumulative alpha since day one sits at +0.55%. That number is real, and we're not hiding the week that just tried to chip it away. Here's a quick look at what moved the needle: | Ticker | Engine | Status | Entry | Exit/Current | P&L | Alpha | |--------|--------|--------|-------|-------------|-----|-------| | MRK | Breakout | Closed (stop) | $121.98 | $112.13 | -5.36% | -3.23% | | GEO | Breakout | Closed (target) | $26.43 | $29.21 | +8.32% | +6.82% | | EVC | Relative Strength | Open (day 9) | $9.05 | — | +8.95% | +7.73% | | PIII | Relative Strength | Open (day 5) | $12.81 | — | -16.08% | -15.01% | Two closed, two open. Win rate on closed trades: 2 for 3 overall (67%). The math is imperfect because PIII hasn't closed yet — and we're not burying that in a footnote. It's the biggest number on the board right now, and it deserves the first line.

Trades we closed this week

**MRK** was the Breakout Engine's least interesting trade of this experiment — and not in a good way. We entered at $121.98 on a setup with reasonable structure. The stock spent two weeks disagreeing with us, then finally stopped us out at $112.13. That's -5.36%, and -3.23% alpha versus SPY over the same window. The setup wasn't wrong on paper. The stock just didn't hold the level that mattered. That's what stops are for — not a verdict on the thesis, but a hard limit on how wrong we're willing to be. **GEO** is the trade we want more of. The Breakout Engine entered at $26.43 on June 8th. By June 17th, the stock had reached our system's target at $29.21 — +8.32% in nine days, +6.82% alpha over SPY for the same stretch. Clean entry, clean exit, no drama. When a setup actually resolves the way the engine expects, this is what it looks like. The two open trades carry into next week. **EVC** (Relative Strength Engine, day 9) is sitting at +8.95% — the kind of open gain that rewards patience, not greed. **PIII** is a different story. Down 16.08% in five days, it hasn't hit its stop yet, but it's close enough that we're watching it without pretending otherwise.

What we tuned this week

We skipped four signals this week — all watchlist days, no new entries triggered. That's not a flaw in the system. The Breakout Engine and Relative Strength Engine both carry filters that keep us out of setups that don't clear the full criteria, and this week those filters caught four names we didn't love. We'd rather sit out than force an entry and regret it. No parameter changes to either engine this week. Both are running the same settings they've used since day one. If we ever adjust them, we'll tell you exactly what changed and why — that's the whole point of logging this publicly. Right now, the sample size is still too small to tweak anything with confidence, and changing the rules mid-experiment would defeat the purpose entirely.

What we're cautious about next week

PIII is the obvious risk heading into next week. A -16% open position is uncomfortable, and there's no dressing that up. If it hits the stop, we take the loss and report it straight. What we won't do is widen the stop retroactively to avoid booking a bad trade — that would hollow out the entire experiment. Beyond PIII, there's a divergence worth noting: SPY finished the week up +0.67% while our system went negative. That's not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to pay attention. If the broad market keeps grinding higher while our signals underperform, we want to know that by week 6 — not week 20. One more thing to keep in perspective: we're on day 16. Sixteen days is not enough data to conclude anything. A rough week on a small sample is noise. We're treating it like noise — while keeping a close eye on whether that noise starts to develop a pattern.

Looking ahead to Monday

Next week, PIII resolves one way or another. EVC either keeps running or it gives back ground. And the system will keep scanning — those four skipped signals from this week could re-emerge if conditions tighten up. Day 16 is in the books. The alpha cushion is thin, but it's still positive. The question the next few weeks will answer: is GEO's clean exit the pattern — or is MRK's slow grind to the stop?