Afternoon Scoreboard: Day 11 Update

Today's market and our positions

GEO and EVC are doing the heavy lifting right now — and the numbers make that clear. SPY added about half a percent today, a quiet session with no real drama, but our open book is carrying gains that dwarf the index move. Overall, the system sits at -0.7% since inception on day 11, while SPY over that same window is down 1.9%. That's +1.3% alpha on an 11-day-old operation with one closed trade — which we won. One trade isn't a sample size. We know that. But the early read is decent.

What our open trades are doing

MRK is the one we're watching with a squint. We're in at $121.98 and it's sitting at $119.05 — that's -2.4% on the position. SPY is down 2.0% over that same window, so we're only slightly underwater relative to the market, but it's still red and it's been nine days. The Breakout Engine flagged it on a level that hasn't been reclaimed cleanly. If it doesn't find traction soon, we'll need to make a call. GEO is the one making us look smart right now. Breakout Engine, day 5, entry $26.43, now $28.42. That's +7.5% on the position while SPY is up just 0.3% over the same stretch — +7.2% alpha on a five-day trade. The structure is holding, and we're not chasing it. Just watching it run. EVC is the newest name in the book — day 2 for the Relative Strength Engine. Entry $9.05, now $9.66, up 6.7% while SPY gained 0.5% over those two days. It's early, but it's off to a clean start. Relative strength setups tend to move fast or fade fast, so we're paying close attention.

Today's closed trades, post-mortem

No trades closed today. Nothing to post-mortem. The book stayed exactly as it opened this morning — three positions, same stops, same targets. Some days are just like that.

What could change by tomorrow's open

MRK is the obvious variable heading into tomorrow. It's the only red position, and it's been grinding sideways-to-lower for more than a week. If the broader market softens even slightly at the open, MRK could test levels that put our stop in play. We're not panicking — that stop exists for exactly this reason — but it's on the short list. GEO and EVC both have open air above them for now, though any sharp market reversal could compress those gains quickly. SPY closing near $742 with a +0.58% day feels calm. But calm can flip overnight.

What we're watching tomorrow

Tomorrow morning the Breakout Engine and Relative Strength Engine both run their scans at the open. Given where GEO and EVC are sitting, the more interesting question may be whether either of those stays clean enough to hold — or whether we're already looking at profit management decisions before any new setups even come up. MRK will answer something one way or another, and probably quickly.